We forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 13.7 million b/d set in 2025, in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Low-cost Appalachian and Canadian natural gas supplies coupled with lower-than-usual regional consumption have pushed down natural gas prices at a major New England pricing hub in recent months to trade at a discount to the widely cited U.S. benchmark, Henry Hub.
What are crack spreads and why are they elevated? Crack spreads are indicators of the profitability of refining crude oil into petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel. One common crack spread is calculated by subtracting the spot market price of a gallon of crude oil from the wholesale price of a gallon of refined product. Since May, the gasoline crack spread in New York Harbor has averaged about $1 per gallon (gal) higher than in 2025, when the crack spread peaked around 60 cents/gal. Gasoline crack spreads are elevated primarily because of tight gasoline supplies globally.
Sustained high temperatures have contributed to persistently high electricity demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the regional transmission organization for most of the state.
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the first six months of the year, 23% more than the same period in 2025, according to our Natural Gas Monthly. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we estimate U.S. LNG exports will average 17.3 Bcf/d in the second half of 2026 (2H26) before rising to 18.7 Bcf/d in 1H27.
